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July 26, 2026Clinical Obesity

Total and central adiposity indices and adipose dysfunction moderately predict 20-year incident T2D.

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Why the study?

Do obesity-related anthropometric and dysfunctional adipose tissue-related indices predict the 20-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes in apparently healthy adults?

Population

2000 apparently healthy adults free of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes at…

Design

Cohort

Follow-up

20 years

Key result

Adiposity indices reflecting total and central adiposity, and adipose tissue dysfunction, were moderately predictive of 20-year incident type 2 diabetes (C-statistic 0.70-0.80).

Authors

IKIoanna KechagiaSGSofia‐Panagiota GiannakopoulouFBFotios Barkas

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Overview

Adiposity indices may flag long-term T2D risk in healthy adults; leaves open added predictive value beyond established factors.

Key Points

  • This research evaluates how different indices of body fat are linked to the 20-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes.
  • Included 2000 individuals, free from T2D and ASCVD at baseline.
  • Collected sociodemographic, anthropometric, lifestyle, clinical, and biochemical data at baseline and follow-up.
  • Measured total and central adiposity and dysfunctional adipose tissue-related indices.
  • The cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes after 20 years was 26.3% (95% CI [24.4%, 28.3%]).
  • All adiposity indices were independently associated with T2D incidence, with an overall predictive accuracy of approximately 75%.
  • Indices reflected adipose tissue dysfunction had moderate discriminative accuracy (C-statistic 0.70-0.80) for predicting T2D.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=2,000)

Structured PICO

Do obesity-related anthropometric and dysfunctional adipose tissue-related indices predict the 20-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes in apparently healthy adults?

P
Population
2,000 apparently healthy adults free of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes at baseline, followed for 20 years.
E
Exposure
Obesity-related anthropometric indices (total and central adiposity) and dysfunctional adipose tissue-related indices
O
Outcome
20-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D)hard clinical

Obesity-related anthropometric and dysfunctional adipose tissue-related indices are moderately predictive of long-term type 2 diabetes onset over 20 years.

Cite This Study

Kechagia et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Type 2 diabetes (n=2,000). Adiposity indices was evaluated on 20-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Adiposity indices reflecting total and central adiposity, and adipose tissue dysfunction, were moderately predictive of 20-year incident type 2 diabetes (C-statistic 0.70-0.80).

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a65a8c9d3aea3239cd78fd2https://doi.org/10.1111/cob.70100
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 12254-P: Comparing Seven Adiposity Indexes in Their Ability to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Risk across Five U.S. Cohorts2026
  2. 2Anthropometric Indices and Diabetes Disease: Based on the Rafsanjan Cohort Study2025
  3. 3The modified cardiometabolic index versus triglyceride-glucose index in predicting type 2 diabetes incidence: a 12-year cohort study2025
  4. 4Novel obesity and metabolic indices better predict non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in elderly T2DM patients: evidence from cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis2025
  5. 52070-P: Adiposity Distribution and Emerging Diabetes Risk in Children2026