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June 7, 2026Diabetes

Having T2D at baseline increased the 5-year risk of developing CKD by ~2-3-fold, and HF by ~1.5-fold.

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Why the study?

Does the presence of T2D increase the risk of developing CKD or HF in adults with overweight or obesity?

Population

Adults with overweight/obesity without CKD or HF at baseline, mean age 50.7-62.2 years, 45.3-63.3% male…

Comparison

Presence of Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) at baseline vs Absence of Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) at baseline

Design

Cohort

Follow-up

5 years

Authors

DHDEBORAH HORNELEva LesénMBMAGNUS BJURSELL

Discussion

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Overview

In adults with overweight or obesity, comorbid T2D substantially increases the 5-year risk of developing CKD (2-3 fold) and heart failure (1.5 fold).

Key Points

  • The study aims to assess the risk of developing cardiorenal complications in individuals living with overweight or obesity, focusing on the impact of type 2 diabetes (T2D).
  • Retrospective analysis of data from OW/OB adults from US and Japan, covering January 2016 to August 2024.
  • Participants had no chronic kidney disease (CKD) or heart failure (HF) at baseline; BMI ≥25 kg/m² in the US and ≥23 kg/m² in Japan.
  • Data analyzed from multiple healthcare databases, including Optum® CDM and MDV.
  • Individuals with T2D at baseline had a 5-year risk of CKD development increased by approximately 2-3 times compared to those without T2D.
  • The risk of developing heart failure increased by approximately 1.5 times in those with T2D.
  • Overall, the risk of cardiorenal complications was shown to increase significantly over time among individuals with OW/OB.

Structured PICO

Does the presence of T2D increase the risk of developing CKD or HF in adults with overweight or obesity?

P
Population
Adults with overweight/obesity (BMI: US ≥25 kg/m2; Japan ≥23 kg/m2) without CKD or HF at baseline, mean age 50.7-62.2 years, 45.3-63.3% male, from the US and Japan.
I
Intervention
Presence of Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) at baseline
C
Comparator
Absence of Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) at baseline
O
Outcome
Development of cardiorenal complications (diagnosed CKD or HF)hard clinical

In adults with overweight or obesity, comorbid T2D substantially increases the 5-year risk of developing CKD (2-3 fold) and heart failure (1.5 fold).

Cite This Study

HORN et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a250c1c7def13d035e1c1f5https://doi.org/10.2337/db26-2652-p
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 11404-P: Obesity Drives Cardiac Hypertrophy while Diabetic Kidney Disease Links to Myocardial Edema and Vascular Stiffness in Young Adults with Type 2 Diabetes2026
  2. 22960-LB: Diabetes and Obesity as a Gateway to Atrial Fibrillation: Incidence, Burden, and Predictors among Eight Million Adults2026
  3. 31764-P: Inflammation, Body Mass Index, and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease and Type 2 Diabetes2026
  4. 42959-LB: Temporal Sequencing of Heart Failure and Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes: A Real-World Evidence Study2026
  5. 52961-LB: Double Diabetes: A Mediator of Age-Related Cardiovascular Risk in Type 1 Diabetes: A Mediation Analysis of a Large T1D Cohort2026