Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy

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Quantitative model reveals nuanced dynamics of crime and incarceration in relation to inequality and labor markets.

Increased inequality and declining employment accompany shifts in punitive justice policy, affecting generations.
A quantitative model predicts distinct dynamics of property and violent crime related to incarceration reform.
Transitional dynamics significantly influence individual responses to policy changes regarding crime and employment.
Historical data calibration mirrors the US experience after 1980, highlighting persistent consequences of past choices.

Güler et al. (2025) studied this question.

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