September 5, 2025

Structural, Solution-Based, and Contextual Analysis of Conditional Probability Problems: Focusing on the 2022 Revised Mathematics Curriculum “Probability and Statistics” Textbooks

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Assessment of conditional probability problems in textbooks shows diverse contexts, indicating curriculum gaps.

Problems from textbooks reveal a slight predominance of non-ternary over ternary conditional probability problems, especially L0 and L2-families.
Among the various solution approaches, classical and general definitions of conditional probability were the most effective for problem-solving.
Contextually, random experiments and statistical surveys were the most common scenarios presented in textbooks, with diagnostic testing following behind.
Recommendations include enhancing L1-family problems and increasing the diversity of contexts and solution methods for better educational outcomes.

Nayoung Ku (2025) studied this question.

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