Study on the Spatio-Temporal Differentiation and Driving Mechanism of Ecological Security in Dongping Lake Basin, Shandong Province, China

Ecological security evaluation serves as the cornerstone for ecological management decision-making and spatial optimization. This study focuses on the Dongping Lake Basin. Based on the Pressure–State–Response (PSR) model framework, it integrates ecological risk, ecosystem health, and ecosystem service indicators. Utilizing methods including Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), Transition Matrix, and GeoDetector, it analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of watershed ecological security from 2000 to 2020. The findings reveal that the Watershed Ecological Security Index (WESI) exhibited a trend of “fluctuating upward followed by periodic decline”. In 2000, the status was “relatively unsafe”. It peaked in 2015 (index 0.332, moderately safe) and experienced a slight decline by 2020. Spatially, a significantly clustered pattern of “higher in the north and lower in the south, higher in the east and lower in the west” was observed. In 2020, “High-High” clusters of ecological security aligned closely with Shandong Province’s ecological conservation red line, concentrating in core protected areas such as the foothills of the Taihang Mountains and Dongping Lake Wetland. Level transitions were characterized by “predominant continuous improvement in low levels alongside localized reverse fluctuations in middle and high levels,” with the “relatively unsafe” and “moderately safe” levels experiencing the largest transfer areas. Geographical detector analysis indicates that the Human Interference Index (HI), Ecosystem Service Value (ESV), and Annual Afforestation Area (AAA) were key drivers of watershed ecological security change, influenced by dynamic interactive effects among multiple factors. This study advances watershed-scale ecological security assessment methodologies. The revealed spatio-temporal patterns and driving mechanisms provide valuable insights for protecting the ecological barrier in the lower Yellow River and informing ecological security strategies within the Dongping Lake Watershed.