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September 2, 2026Chronic Diseases and Translational MedicineOpen Access

Baseline obesity in men is linked to ~88% greater 10-year risk of treated hypertension.

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Why the study?

Does baseline BMI category predict incident treated hypertension in adult men?

Population

12,742 men aged ≥ 18 years without treated hypertension at baseline from the Ten to Men longitudinal study

Comparison

Baseline BMI category vs Normal-weight men

Design

Cohort

Follow-up

133,038 person-years

Key result

Baseline obesity in men was associated with an increased 10-year cumulative incidence of treated hypertension compared to normal weight (20.5% vs 7.5%; HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.59-2.22).

Authors

EAEbenezer Afrifa‐Yamoah

Discussion

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Overview

Supports BMI in hypertension risk stratification for men; extends observational data with age-specific effects and modest discrimination gains.

Key Points

  • To evaluate the association between baseline body mass index category and incident treated hypertension and determine whether body mass index improves risk prediction beyond standard predictors in adult men.
  • Analyzed prospective cohort data from the Ten to Men study (2013–2024) linked with Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) records.
  • Followed 12,742 men aged ≥ 18 years without treated hypertension at baseline for 133,038 person-years using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models and bootstrap validation.
  • Antihypertensive therapy was initiated in 1,755 men (13.2 per 1,000 person-years), with 10-year cumulative incidence rising from 7.5% (95% CI 6.6–8.3) in normal-weight men to 20.5% (95% CI 18.9–22.0) in obese men.
  • Fully adjusted hazard ratios versus normal weight were 1.43 (95% CI 1.16–1.77) for underweight, 1.42 (95% CI 1.22–1.67) for overweight, and 1.88 (95% CI 1.59–2.22) for obesity.
  • A significant age interaction (p < 0.01) showed stronger obesity effects at ages 30–44 years (HR 2.39, 95% CI 1.91–2.98) than at ages ≥ 45 years (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.28–1.94), with BMI addition improving overall discrimination to C = 0.754.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=12,742)

Structured PICO

Does baseline BMI category predict incident treated hypertension in adult men?

P
Population
12,742 Australian men aged ≥ 18 years without treated hypertension at baseline, followed for 133,038 person-years.
E
Exposure
Baseline BMI category (underweight, overweight, obese)
C
Comparator
Normal-weight men
O
Outcome
Incident treated hypertensionhard clinical

Main Result

Hazard Ratio: 1.88 (95% CI 1.59–2.22)

Absolute Event Rate: 20.5% vs 7.5%

Baseline BMI is independently associated with incident treated hypertension in men, with obesity having the strongest relative effect in early midlife.

Cite This Study

Ebenezer Afrifa‐Yamoah (2026) conducted a cohort in Hypertension (n=12,742). Obesity (Body Mass Index Category) vs. Normal weight was evaluated on incident treated hypertension (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.59-2.22). Baseline obesity in men was associated with an increased 10-year cumulative incidence of treated hypertension compared to normal weight (20.5% vs 7.5%; HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.59-2.22).

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a97e2f6c562ede874ec7637https://doi.org/10.1002/cdt3.70064
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