Why the study?
Does the AHA PREVENT equation accurately predict CVD risk in a middle-aged and elderly Chinese population?
Population
10,068 participants aged ≥ 45 years from the nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study
Comparison
American Heart Association Predicting Risk of… vs China-PAR risk prediction model
Design
Cohort
Follow-up
2011-2018
Key result
The PREVENT equations exhibited poor discrimination for predicting cardiovascular disease in a Chinese population, with an AUC of 0.61 in males and 0.62 in females, despite higher scores being significantly associated with increased CVD risk.
Authors
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Supports PREVENT evaluation for CVD risk stratification; hypothesis-generating and requires prospective validation before practice change.
Cohort (n=10,068)
Yes
Does the AHA PREVENT equation accurately predict CVD risk in a middle-aged and elderly Chinese population?
Odds Ratio: 1.05 (95% CI 1.04–1.07)
The AHA PREVENT equations exhibit reduced discrimination for CVD prediction in middle-aged and elderly Chinese individuals compared to US populations, suggesting the need for statistical recalibration before clinical application.
Fan et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Cardiovascular disease (n=10,068). PREVENT equations was evaluated on Cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, including heart disease and stroke (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.07). The PREVENT equations exhibited poor discrimination for predicting cardiovascular disease in a Chinese population, with an AUC of 0.61 in males and 0.62 in females, despite higher scores being significantly associated with increased CVD risk.