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July 4, 2026Computer Methods in Biomechanics & Biomedical Engineering

Attention-based AI model EMAX accurately predicts expert-adjudicated Caprini VTE risk with ~0.95 AUC.

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Why the study?

Does an AI paradigm using LLMs and an attention-based model accurately predict expert-adjudicated Caprini RAM risk for VTE from EHR narratives?

Population

14,808 eligible electronic health record encounter records with documented expert Caprini scores, curated…

Design

Other

Key result

An attention-based AI model (EMAX) using locally deployed LLMs accurately predicted expert-adjudicated Caprini VTE risk, achieving an AUC of 0.9513 on the test set.

Authors

AGAn GongSWS S WuSWShujing Wang

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Overview

May enable auditable VTE risk scoring in EHRs; leaves open prospective outcome validation.

Key Points

  • This research aims to develop an interpretable AI model to predict VTE risk using electronic health records.
  • Utilized 113,836 raw encounter records and selected 14,808 based on expert Caprini scores for supervised learning.
  • Employed locally deployed LLMs to structure EHR narratives and an attention-based model named EMAX for risk prediction.
  • Evaluated model performance using the AUC metric on a designated test set.
  • EMAX achieved an AUC of 0.9513 on the test set, indicating high predictive performance.
  • The model provides a clinically aligned approach, enhancing current VTE risk assessment methods.
  • Demonstrated an end-to-end pathway for accurate and adoptable VTE risk stratification.

Structured PICO

Does an AI paradigm using LLMs and an attention-based model accurately predict expert-adjudicated Caprini RAM risk for VTE from EHR narratives?

P
Population
14,808 eligible encounter records with documented expert Caprini scores used to train and test a VTE risk prediction model.
E
Exposure
An interpretable AI paradigm using locally deployed Large Language Models (LLMs) to structure EHR narratives and an attention-based model (EMAX)
O
Outcome
Prediction of expert-adjudicated Caprini RAM (2010) risk

Main Result

Effect estimate: AUC 0.9513

An AI framework combining LLMs and an attention-based model can accurately predict expert-adjudicated VTE risk scores from EHR narratives, offering a scalable and interpretable tool for clinical risk stratification.

Cite This Study

Gong et al. (2026) studied Venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk (n=14,808). EMAX (attention-based AI model using LLMs) was evaluated on Expert-adjudicated Caprini RAM (2010) risk prediction (AUC 0.9513). An attention-based AI model (EMAX) using locally deployed LLMs accurately predicted expert-adjudicated Caprini VTE risk, achieving an AUC of 0.9513 on the test set.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a48a4c689561a0c2d78de56https://doi.org/10.1080/10255842.2026.2698065
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