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June 7, 2026Cardiovascular DiabetologyOpen Access

Cumulative TyG-BRI was robustly associated with new-onset cardiovascular disease across cohorts, with an HR of 1.54 (95% CI 1.27-1.86) for the highest versus lowest quartile.

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Why the study?

Do elevated triglyceride-glucose (TyG)-related indices predict new-onset cardiovascular disease in middle-aged and older adults?

Population

5,028 middle-aged and older adult participants from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study and…

Comparison

14 triglyceride-glucose-related indices vs Lower quartiles of TyG-related indices (e.g., Q1)

Design

Cohort

Follow-up

median 5.0 years in CHARLS and 13.5 years in ELSA

Key result

Cumulative TyG-BRI was robustly associated with new-onset cardiovascular disease across cohorts, with an HR of 1.54 (95% CI 1.27-1.86) for the highest versus lowest quartile.

Authors

ZZZhang-le ZhuHHHU Hui-fen

Discussion

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Member takes

Overview

Cumulative TyG-BRI is a robust predictor of new-onset cardiovascular disease across different aging cohorts, with hypertension partly mediating this risk.

Key Points

  • The aim is to compare various triglyceride-glucose indices and their cumulative effects on predicting new-onset cardiovascular disease.
  • Longitudinal cohort study with 5,028 participants from CHARLS and ELSA.
  • Assessment of 14 triglyceride-glucose indicators using Cox regression, mediation analyses, and predictive performance evaluations.
  • Development of a nomogram for estimating 5-year cardiovascular disease risk.
  • 1,067 incident cardiovascular disease events recorded during median follow-ups of 5.0 years (CHARLS) and 13.5 years (ELSA).
  • CumTyG-BRI showed significant association with cardiovascular disease risk, HR 1.54 (95%CI, 1.27-1.86) comparing highest to lowest quartile.
  • The nomogram demonstrated moderate discrimination with a C-index of 0.679 for 5-year risk estimation.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=5,028)

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

Do elevated triglyceride-glucose (TyG)-related indices predict new-onset cardiovascular disease in middle-aged and older adults?

P
Population
5,028 middle-aged and older adults from the CHARLS and ELSA cohorts followed for a median of 5.0 to 13.5 years to evaluate TyG-related indices for predicting new-onset cardiovascular disease.
E
Exposure
14 triglyceride-glucose (TyG)-related indices (7 single-time and 7 cumulative average indices)
C
Comparator
Lower quartiles of TyG-related indices (e.g., Q1)
O
Outcome
New-onset cardiovascular disease (incident CVD)hard clinical

Main Result

Hazard Ratio: 1.54 (95% CI 1.27–1.86)

Cumulative TyG-BRI is a robust predictor of new-onset cardiovascular disease across different aging cohorts, with hypertension partly mediating this risk.

Limitations

  • Further validation is needed before routine clinical use

Cite This Study

Zhu et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Cardiovascular disease (n=5,028). Cumulative average triglyceride-glucose (TyG)-based indicators (CumTyG-BRI) vs. Lowest quartile (Q1) was evaluated on Incident cardiovascular disease (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.27-1.86). Cumulative TyG-BRI was robustly associated with new-onset cardiovascular disease across cohorts, with an HR of 1.54 (95% CI 1.27-1.86) for the highest versus lowest quartile.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a250a3c7def13d035e1a7d2https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-026-03224-x
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