Prediction of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Electric Vehicle Charging Load Considering Transportation Networks and Travel Behaviors

As typical dynamic loads, electric vehicles (EVs) introduce significant uncertainty into distribution network operations due to the randomness of their travel behavior and charging demand. To achieve precise spatiotemporal forecasting of charging loads, this paper constructs a multi-dimensional transportation network model that accounts for dynamic road impedance factors and introduces a unit-distance energy consumption calculation method based on road impedance. By integrating the division of urban multifunctional zones and differentiated state-of-charge (SOC) threshold distributions across various EV types, a mapping model between travel chains and charging behaviors is established. Subsequently, large-scale travel and charging events are generated using an origin–destination (OD) probability matrix and Monte Carlo sampling to derive the spatiotemporal distribution of regional EV charging loads. Simulation results for a representative city in southwest China show that the predicted charging loads exhibit a dual-peak pattern, with significant differences across regions and vehicle types, and align well with observed load trends, validating the effectiveness and engineering applicability of the proposed method.