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November 4, 2025Open Access

Fiscal Signaling and Defense Spending Interdependence: Pearson and Granger Analysis of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, 2000–2024

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Weak correlations were observed between Indonesia and Malaysia (r = 0.239) and Indonesia and Singapore (r = –0.027).
No significant Granger causality effects were found at one-year or two-year lags (p > 0.05) between the countries.
The study uses Pearson correlation and Granger causality tests to assess defense spending relationships from 2000–2024.
The findings highlight a lack of fiscal signaling, indicating that defense budgets are shaped more by domestic priorities than regional competition.

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The study finds limited interdependence in defense spending among Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, suggesting autonomy in budgeting practices.

Murdoko et al. (2025) studied this question.

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The study finds limited interdependence in defense spending among Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, suggesting autonomy in budgeting practices.