The climate exodus: a multivariate analysis of migration drivers in Northern Bangladesh

This study aims to explore the factors influencing human migration decisions in the context of climate change, with a focus on Kurigram, one of the most disaster-prone districts in northern Bangladesh. Using a multivariate analysis approach, survey data from 300 respondents were analyzed through Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) in SmartPLS 4 to assess the combined influence of different factors on internal out-migration. The findings reveal that environmental factors (λ=.858) are the most influential factors of migration, surpassing economic (λ=.686), social (λ=.617), and political (λ=.521) factors. Policy recommendations emphasize the integration of migration into national climate adaptation strategies, with a focus on flood control, job diversification, and ecosystem-based solutions. Aligned with frameworks such as the BCCSAP and Delta Plan, the study also advocates for rights-based approaches to protect climate-displaced populations and enhance resilience in vulnerable regions.