Productivity or burden? How voluntary and involuntary returnees reshape agriculture

Introduction Since 2015, China's supportive policies and external economic shocks have intensified rural-urban migration dynamics, leading to a significant rise in return migration. While extensive research has examined the determinants and impacts of rural–urban migration, studies on return migration—particularly its effects on agricultural productivity—remain inconsistent and often overlook migrants' heterogeneous motivations. Methods Using nationally representative data, this study employs fixed effects models, instrumental variables, and propensity score matching to address endogeneity concerns. It estimates both the average impact of return migration and the differential effects of voluntary vs. involuntary return on agricultural productivity, further exploring underlying mechanisms. Results Voluntary returnee households exhibit higher agricultural productivity than non-migrant households, though they constitute a minority. In contrast, involuntary returnee households—who form the majority—show lower productivity. Mechanism analyses indicate that voluntary returnees enhance productivity through improved information acquisition and total factor productivity, whereas involuntary returnees suffer from constraints related to health and family care responsibilities. Discussion This study clarifies the mixed evidence on return migration and agricultural productivity by revealing opposing effects among voluntary vs. involuntary returnees. Policy efforts should attract and enable voluntary returnees through digital infrastructure and skills training, while addressing health and care constraints faced by involuntary returnees via improved rural medical and childcare services. Such targeted interventions can help maximize positive impacts and mitigate barriers to agricultural productivity.