September 10, 2025Data & PolicyOpen Access

Forecasting displacement and solutions for decision-making in volatile contexts: a case study from Ukraine

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Forecasting displacement patterns has proven essential for policymakers to assist internally displaced persons effectively.
Less than three weeks post-invasion, the IOM in Ukraine provided nationwide displacement estimates to guide decision-making.
Practical experiences were drawn from the Ukraine General Population Survey, aiding in program design for durable solutions.
The ethics and usability of mobility prediction approaches have potential for application in other displacement scenarios.

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Case study explores displacement forecasting and decision-making strategies for IDPs in Ukraine, suggesting ethical replication models.

Krelinova et al. (2025) studied this question.

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