Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population Aging in the Triangle of Central China at Multiple Scales

This study focuses on the Triangle of Central China and investigates the spatiotemporal evolution, driving factors, and impacts of population aging on regional sustainable development from 2000 to 2020. The study adopts an innovative two-scale analytical framework at the prefecture and district/county level, integrating spatial autocorrelation analysis, the Geodetector model, and geographically weighted regression. The results show a significant acceleration in population aging across the study area, accompanied by pronounced spatial clustering, particularly in western Hubei and the Wuhan metropolitan area. Over time, the spatial distribution has evolved from a relatively dispersed pattern to one of high concentration. Key drivers of the spatial heterogeneity of aging include economic disparities, demographic transitions, and the uneven spatial allocation of public services such as healthcare and education. These aging patterns profoundly affect the region’s potential for sustainable development. Accordingly, the study proposes a multi-scale collaborative governance strategy: At the prefecture level, efforts should focus on promoting the coordinated development of the silver economy and optimizing the spatial redistribution of healthcare resources; At the district and county level, priorities should include strengthening infrastructure, curbing the outflow of young labor, and improving access to basic public services. By integrating spatial analysis techniques with sustainable development policy recommendations, this study provides a basis for scientifically measuring, understanding, and managing demographic transitions. This is essential for achieving long-term socioeconomic sustainability in rapidly aging regions.