Implementation the Pegel’s Classification to Forecast Rice Prices Based on Quality at The Milling Level

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Predicted premium rice price will be below IDR 14,000, showing minimal variance by quality.
The Pegel’s B-2 model offers a highly accurate forecast with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 2.02%.
Prices are expected to peak in February 2025, followed by a decline in March.
Data came from Badan Pusat Statistik, emphasizing the role of quality in rice pricing analysis.

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Observational analysis predicts rice prices at the milling level, indicating quality impacts pricing.

Sausan Ramadhani (2025) studied this question.

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