Analysis reveals social contract shifts in Russia after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, highlighting authoritarian legitimacy dynamics.
This article analyzes the transformation of Russia’s social contract following the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Prior to the invasion, scholars characterized the Russian social contract as a mutual non-interference agreement or an authoritarian bargain in which economic prosperity or aspirations of national greatness were exchanged for political disengagement. In the aftermath of the invasion, however, the regime initiated a recalibration of this contract to preserve legitimacy under wartime conditions. While the revised social contract retained the core logic of exchanging loyalty for stability, the regime sought to sustain performance legitimacy by shielding the majority from the direct costs of war, while displacing its burdens onto specific marginalized groups, excluding them from the renewed agreement. The emergence of the “Put’ Domoy” movement highlights the fragility and exclusionary nature of this new arrangement. Ultimately, the revised social contract reflects a transformation in how authoritarian legitimacy is managed in times of war – less through shared ideological commitment, and more through a fragmented and selective distribution of costs, risks, and rights. This paper draws on existing surveys and secondary analyses of the effects of the war on Russian society, including three Public Sociology Laboratory studies based on an extensive dataset of in-depth interviews on war perceptions and resistance in Russia, collected between 2022 and 2024.
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Natalia Savelyeva (2025) studied this question.
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