September 10, 2025Nomico.

The Effect of Global Commodity Price Volatility on Indonesia's Trade Balance

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Crude oil price volatility negatively impacts Indonesia's trade balance, primarily decreasing the trade surplus.
Analysis shows that coal and palm oil price fluctuations also affect the trade balance, albeit to a lesser extent.
Multiple linear regression and ARCH/GARCH models were utilized to study the data spanning from 2010 to 2024.
Strengthening risk mitigation strategies is crucial for maintaining Indonesia's trade resilience against commodity price volatility.

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Analysis reveals significant effects of crude oil and coal price fluctuations on trade balance in Indonesia, suggesting exchange rate implications.

Kalsum et al. (2025) studied this question.

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Analysis reveals significant effects of crude oil and coal price fluctuations on trade balance in Indonesia, suggesting exchange rate implications.