Integrated Fuzzy AHP and SAM Decision Framework for Offshore Pipeline Risk Management

This study proposes an improvement to a model that evaluates the impact of environmental, design and structural factors, operational parameters and safety measures on the design and operation of subsea pipelines. The study uses Bayes' theorem and fuzzy logic to assess the risk probabilities associated with various factors affecting pipelines. The impact of each environmental and operational factor on pipeline durability is determined, and updated probabilities (posterior probabilities) are calculated based on prior probabilities and expert data. Environmental factors include seabed topography, hydrostatic pressure, seawater temperature, currents and waves, sediment movement and corrosive environments. Design and construction factors include pipeline wall thickness, material strength, pipeline diameter, coating and corrosion protection, free span, fatigue, joint integrity and third-party interference. Operational factors relate to internal pressure, hydrate formation, slugging, inspection and maintenance intervals, temperature differential and flow rate. The improved values proposed in this study are more closely aligned with the actual operating conditions of subsea pipelines, providing more realistic results based on industry practices. As a result, this approach enables better decision-making to improve the reliability and durability of subsea pipelines. It also helps to mitigate risks and identify optimal design choices while ensuring the efficient and safe operation of subsea pipelines.