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September 5, 2025Jurnal Biometrika dan KependudukanOpen Access

Underreporting in Infectious Disease Cases: A Time Series Regression-Sir Approach

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Authors

EAEmmanuel Alphonsus AkpanFIFlorence Gregory IkonoCUCollins F. Udom

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Overview

Time series regression reveals a 35% underreporting rate in COVID-19 cases in Nigeria, indicating flaws in public health data.

Key Points

  • Underreporting of COVID-19 cases leads to distorted understanding of infectious disease dynamics, resulting in flawed public health strategies.
  • The analysis shows a 35% reporting rate of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria, highlighting significant underreporting issues.
  • Utilizing a time series regression model, the study identifies the quasi-Poisson distribution as the best fit for the reported cases.
  • The adjusted transmission rate, accounting for underreporting, decreased by approximately 0.15, showcasing the seriousness of underreported data.

Cite This Study

Akpan et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68c239a3b210217d6477d73chttps://doi.org/10.20473/jbk.v14i1.2025.22-33
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