Three studies demonstrate that conjunction fallacy in probability judgements differs between adults and children, suggesting distinct cognitive processes.
Key Points
Adults showed a conjunction fallacy in probability judgements influenced by winning likelihood, and correlated with social judgement fallacies.
Children's conjunction fallacies in probability judgements were not impacted by probability manipulation and did not vary with age.
A 'thinking aloud' technique helped adults reduce social judgement fallacies but had no effect on objective probability judgements.
Developmental changes affect decision-making, highlighting distinct cognitive processes in objective versus social judgement errors.