August 20, 2025Open Access

Human Extinction from a Probabilistic Demographic Perspective

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Probabilistic forecasting predicts a decline in world population, suggesting human extinction by 2339.

By 2139, the world population will decrease to between 1.55 billion and 1.81 billion, leading toward extinction.
Forecasting indicates a drastic drop, projecting the population to reach just 4.95 million to 5.84 million by 2239.
Using probabilistic forecasting methods combined with confidence intervals illuminates possible extinction timelines.
These implications highlight the urgent need for understanding demographic trends and their potential consequences.

Swanson et al. (2025) studied this question.

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August 20, 2025Open Access

View Full Paper

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Authors

Probabilistic forecasting predicts a decline in world population, suggesting human extinction by 2339.

By 2139, the world population will decrease to between 1.55 billion and 1.81 billion, leading toward extinction.
Forecasting indicates a drastic drop, projecting the population to reach just 4.95 million to 5.84 million by 2239.
Using probabilistic forecasting methods combined with confidence intervals illuminates possible extinction timelines.
These implications highlight the urgent need for understanding demographic trends and their potential consequences.

Swanson et al. (2025) studied this question.

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark