Ecosystem Service Trade-offs, Synergies, and Zoning Management in China: Integrating Static and Dynamic Perspectives under Future Scenarios

Abstract Ecosystem services (ESs) constitute the critical nexus between natural ecosystems and sustainable human development. In China, rapid urbanization and industrialization have intensified pressures on ESs. Therefore, systematically assessing ESs and elucidating their interrelationships is imperative for ecosystem sustainable development. We quantified water conservation (WC), soil retention (SR), carbon storage (CS) across three SSP-RCP scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5), analyzed the interactions among ESs from both dynamic and static perspectives, and divided the study area based on ESs interactions, The results indicated that, under SSP2-RCP4.5 (SSP245) scenario, CS service increased by 0.13% from 2030 to 2100, while WC and SR services decreased by 0.17% and 0.31% respectively. Spatially, these three ESs exhibited higher values in southeastern China and lower ones in northwestern China. Static interrelationships analysis of WC-SR, WC-CS, and CS-SR showed robust synergies with at least 48% areas showing static synergies, including “High-High” clustering in southern China and “Low-Low” patterns in northwestern regions. From a dynamic perspective, the ESs pairs of WC-SR and CS-SR show dynamic synergies in 31.67% and 44.56% of regions respectively, whereas the pair of WC-CS shows dynamic trade-offs in 32.38% regions. Finally, by integrating ESs changes with regional resource endowments, the study area was categorized into six zones, the persistent degradation zones represented the largest share, comprising 40.1% of the total area, while the restoration potential zones constituted the smallest proportion for just 0.9%. By bridging static and dynamic perspectives, this study establishes a decision-making paradigm for sustainable ESs management, contributing to sustainable development of ecosystems through differentiated management strategies.