Forecasting the Incidence and the Prevalence Rate of Type 2 Diabetes in Iran Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

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The study predicts a significant increase in type 2 diabetes incidence in Iran by 2040, highlighting the need for immediate public health efforts.
In 2020, the incidence rates were 476.31 and 528.14 per 100000 for men and women, respectively, with projections for 2040 indicating rises to 649.80 and 740.09.
Using the Box-Jenkins method and ARIMA models, researchers analyzed data between 1990 and 2019 to forecast future diabetes trends.
The findings emphasize the importance of effective resource allocation for diabetes management and prevention strategies in Iran.

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Time series analysis demonstrates rising incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Iran, suggesting urgent health measures.

Shiri et al. (2025) studied this question.

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