Perceptual predictions track subjective, over objective, statistical structure

Predictive processes in cognition and the brain are usually modelled as tracking objective event probabilities. However, we know little about how our subjective representations of statistical structure may determine these functions, as they will likely be related to, but dissociate from, the objective statistics. To this end, we conducted three studies where cues (actions or tones) predicted visual outcomes (shapes or Gabors) with varying contingencies, and adult participants discriminated these outcomes. Uniquely to our paradigm, participants also rated the subjective probability (Experiment 1; N = 68), expectedness (Experiment 2; N = 35), or surprise (Experiment 3; N = 35) of the outcomes. When modelling subjective ratings alongside objective structure, discrimination speed was best explained by independent contributions from both, whereas the decision itself was usually only explained by the ratings. These findings open a host of interesting questions about the relative objective and subjective contributions to prediction, perception, and learning.